MADRID
— Two weeks after Scotland voted against leaving Britain, another and
more contentious secession fight is hurtling ahead in Europe, with Spain
and its independence-minded region of Catalonia increasingly at odds
and showing few signs of willingness to compromise.
Responding
to a decree signed on Saturday by Catalonia’s leader authorizing an
independence vote on Nov. 9, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain
declared on Monday that the vote would not go ahead because it violates
Spain’s Constitution and would be rejected by the Constitutional Court.
The
standoff raised the prospect that Catalans might seek to go ahead with
the referendum even in the face of opposition from the central
government, creating a deep split within Spain, encouraging other
separatists in Europe — including those in Spain’s Basque region — and
leaving Mr. Rajoy with a volatile political challenge.
Later
on Monday, Spain’s Constitutional Court voted in a special session to
suspend the Catalan decree pending a final ruling on its validity. Mr.
Rajoy’s firm stance could leave him “being legally right but still
facing a growing problem of legitimacy that won’t be removed unless the
question of Catalonia’s future and sovereignty gets somehow addressed,”
said José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the Spanish office of the
European Council on Foreign Relations, a research group.
Polls
suggest that Catalans are split on the secession question, but that a
majority are in favor of the issue being put to a vote.
It
is not clear what steps Mr. Rajoy would take should the Catalans press
ahead with a vote in the face of a court ruling against them and
opposition from the central government. But if a vote was to take place,
it could well become an issue that draws in other European governments,
some of whom face separatist movements of their own.
If
Scots had voted to break away in a referendum approved by the British
government, the European Union would have “somehow adjusted, even if on
some issues Brussels would have had to square a legal circle,” Mr.
Torreblanca said. If Catalonia holds a vote without the approval of Mr.
Rajoy’s government, however, “it would be a real earthquake for the
E.U., forcing other Europeans to enter uncharted waters and take sides
in a national dispute that has no precedent.”
The
decree signed by Artur Mas, the Catalan leader, ratcheted up a dispute
that began two years ago over fiscal issues into a secessionist
challenge with political risks for both leaders. Spain holds a general
election next year.
Mr.
Rajoy accused Mr. Mas on Monday of irresponsibility in pushing Catalans
toward a secession vote when, under Spain’s Constitution, only a
majority of Spaniards can alter Spain’s “indivisible sovereignty.”
“There
isn’t anybody who can deprive all Spaniards of the right to decide over
what is their country,” Mr. Rajoy said at a news conference after an
emergency cabinet meeting. “Whoever has got underway this whole process
is responsible for its serious consequences.”
A
vote, Mr. Rajoy said, “is against the law, steps beyond democracy,
divides Catalans, moves them away from Europe and hurts their
well-being.”
Mr.
Mas, however, said in a television interview on Sunday that it was Mr.
Rajoy who was forcing a vote by refusing to make any fiscal or other
concessions to Catalonia. “There is no plan B,” Mr. Mas said in the
interview with La Sexta, a Spanish TV channel.
Mr. Mas has trumpeted Scotland’s referendum as a “great lesson in democracy” that Mr. Rajoy should heed.
For
Spain, the economic consequences of a secession would likely be greater
than they would have been for Britain. Spain is still recovering
economically from the euro debt crisis and continues to struggle with
near-record unemployment, following a lengthy recession and a banking
bailout.
Scotland’s
5.3 million people represent about 8 percent of Britain’s population
and account for 9 percent of its economic output. But Scotland’s North
Sea oil assets make it the wealthiest part of Britain per capita; this
fed into secessionist arguments that Scotland’s economy could thrive
without support from London.
Catalonia’s
7.5 million people represent 16 percent of the Spanish population, but
also account for a larger share of Spain’s economy — 19 percent. That
has fueled resentment among Catalans about Spain’s fiscal system, which
redistributes their taxes to weaker Spanish regions.
Mr.
Rajoy said on Monday that he was willing to resume “a fruitful
dialogue” with Mr. Mas about some economic concessions, “but always
within the return to legality.” Mr. Rajoy refused to discuss how his
government would respond if Catalonia set up ballot boxes on Nov. 9.
The
Catalan regional government has budgeted 8.9 million euros — about
$11.3 million — to finance the vote. A Catalan vote would also be a
bellwether for other independence-minded regions, notably the Basque
region, which has a long and violent history of separatism.
Mr.
Mas, on the other hand, faces the difficult choice of going ahead with
an illegal vote or of delaying the vote to allow for further
negotiations with Mr. Rajoy, which could lead to protests in Catalonia.
He could also call early elections in Catalonia — with the risk that
more hard-line secessionist politicians could win and oust him and his
Convergence party from power.
Mr.
Mas insisted on Sunday that he acted within the law, signing a decree
that was validated by Catalonia’s own legal experts, as well as an
overwhelming majority of regional lawmakers. Still, he noted that
history also offered examples of civil disobedience leading to political
and social progress.
Catalonia
“isn’t Kosovo,” said Mr. Torreblanca, the political analyst, “but it’s
hard to believe that at least a small fraction of Catalans will not get
more radical, because the sense of frustration if there is no vote will
be very real.”
On
Sept. 11, hundreds of thousands of pro-independence Catalans marched in
Barcelona on Catalonia’s national day to demand a vote.
Catalans
have a strong cultural identity and have long clashed with Madrid. The
botched proclamation of a Catalan state during the 1930s was eventually
followed by the Spanish Civil War and the lengthy dictatorship of its
winner, Francisco Franco.
Spain’s
return to democracy in the late 1970s, however, allowed Catalonia and
other regions to reclaim some autonomy — notably over an education
system in which Catalan was promoted as the main language — in return
for broad cooperation with successive governments in Madrid.
Under
Jordi Pujol, who founded the Convergence party and led Catalonia from
1980 to 2003, Catalonia’s government then “followed a pragmatic approach
of seeking concessions from Madrid, but not ones that could ever lead
to a break-up,” said Josep Fontana, a Catalan historian.
Even
with his political future in the balance, Mr. Mas will not proceed with
a vote that would have “no international credibility” if held against a
constitutional ruling, said Josep Ramoneda, a Catalan writer and
political columnist.
“It’s
a situation that is extremely difficult to unblock and that is likely
to leave Catalonia stuck in muddy waters for a long time,” Mr. Ramoneda
said. “Sooner or later, there will be a referendum because even if the
path chosen by Mas isn’t the right one, you cannot just respond to such
sovereignty demands with legal arguments.”
Correction: September 29, 2014
Because of an editing error, a previous version of this article gave an incorrect equivalent, in dollars, of the 8.9 million euros that the Catalan regional government has budgeted for an independence referendum. It is $11.3 million, not $113 million.
Because of an editing error, a previous version of this article gave an incorrect equivalent, in dollars, of the 8.9 million euros that the Catalan regional government has budgeted for an independence referendum. It is $11.3 million, not $113 million.
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