Catalan separatists rallying on November 7th
SPAIN'S central government had hoped that the mock referendum on independence which Catalonia staged on November 9th might release steam from the separatist pressure-cooker. Instead, Artur Mas, the president of the wealthy north-eastern region, seems ready to escalate the confrontation. In a speech on November 25th, he pledged to call a plebiscitary election on independence—a snap vote around the issue that would also elect a new regional parliament—if the separatist movement can unite behind him to form a single list of candidates.
Unlike the November 9th vote, there would be no doubts about such an election's legality. If it returned a separatist majority, it would plunge Catalonia into a period of deep political uncertainty. The main independence movement, the Catalan National Assembly (ANC), is pushing Mr Mas for a vote in February.
Mr Mas faces court proceedings for his unabashed snubbing of Madrid's authority in the November 9th referendum, but this has only boosted his popularity. Meanwhile, his offer of plebiscitary elections cleverly throws down two gauntlets at once. The first goes to his political rivals in the separatist Catalan Republican Left (ERC), which currently leads in opinion polls. To accept his offer of a vote, they must join Mr Mas's list, which means passing up the chance of heading the new regional government. Tellingly, ERC leader Oriol Junqueras did not applaud Mr Mas's speech; on December 2nd he said that his party wanted to stand separately. If the ERC and Mr Mas continue to disagree and no plebiscitary vote is held, independence will go on the back burner.
The second gauntlet goes to Madrid. Mr Mas said that, were his separatist list to win (which is by no means certain), it would then inform the European Union of its intention to leave Spain and give itself 18 months to put in place the institutions of a state (such as a proper tax authority). Fresh elections would be called for the end of 2016, followed by a definitive referendum. The new regional government would, in the meantime, try to open negotiations with Madrid.
Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, calls the plan “a journey to nowhere”. The obstacles, indeed, are huge. Attempts to create separate state institutions may fall foul of the Spanish Constitutional Court. Mr Mas does not have the power to call a referendum, and Mr Rajoy's government refuses to negotiate. The country's constitution is an even bigger stumbling block. It guarantees “the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation”. Major changes to the constitution require a vote of two-thirds of the Madrid parliament and approval at a nationwide referendum. That would leave Mr Mas's separatists with a tough choice. They would have to either persuade Spaniards to let them go or ignore the law and declare independence unilaterally. The EU—to which Catalans remain deeply attached—is unlikely to welcome that.
Mr Mas recognises that, in historical terms, the shift of Catalan nationalism towards independence (rather than greater self-government within Spain) is relatively new. He blames Madrid's intransigence. Mr Rajoy blames the economy for the surge in support for separatism, but Spain's nascent recovery has so far made little change to popular opinion; polls put support for independence at about 50%. Mr Rajoy has yet to make any serious offer to calm Catalan ire, and with a general election at the end of next year he is running out of time.
Mr Rajoy argues that, when asked about their main concerns, Catalans put the economy above independence. Plebiscitary elections will do nothing to fix the former. Madrid, in turn, is not prepared to fix the latter. Catalans are in for messy times.